Famous political scientist John Mearsheimer, an international relations realist scholar, has once again been the centre of attention with his forecast of the Russia-Ukraine war. In his view, the war won’t be settled through diplomacy but on the battlefield, where Russian President Vladimir Putin will come out on top.

Mearsheimer’s Take on the War

Mearsheimer had been telling us for years that Western intervention in Ukraine. Specifically expansion on the part of NATO, was a primary cause of Russian invasion. It was Ukraine’s alignment with Western powers that presented an existential threat to Russia and compelled Putin to aggressive warfare, in his estimation.

Mearsheimer Predicts Russia-Ukraine War

Following Mearsheimer, Russia shall not accept a diplomatic or ceasefire solution that does not align with its strategic interests. He supposes that Ukrainian armed resistance, as it has been supported by the West, might be insufficient to deny Russia victory.

The Battlefield as the Deciding Factor

Mearsheimer believes military power and control of territory will ultimately decide the war’s outcome. He theorizes that Ukraine’s ability to keep fighting in the long term is questionable. Considering the extent of Russian military action and the fatigue of the West in providing aid.

He also cautions that the longer the conflict continues, the worse the prognosis will be for Ukraine as Russia. It just keeps building on its gains on the ground and weakening Ukraine’s infrastructure.

Western Reaction & International Implications

Mearsheimer’s thesis has been controversial among strategists and pundits. Although there are some who concur with his realist line of reasoning, some others believe that the durability of Ukraine and Western support in military capabilities can work to pave the way back into the game for Kyiv.

The foreign policy consequences of a Russian victory would be immense, perhaps augmenting Moscow’s power and diminishing Western hegemony on the world stage.

ALSO READ: Trump-Putin Call Raises Hopes for Peace in Russia-Ukraine War

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