India Sugar Production at Risk:
India’s sugar output for the 2025-26 season may face problems as the area planted with sugarcane has slightly decreased. Early data shows that farmers have planted less sugarcane this year compared to last year, which could affect overall sugar production.
By the first week of May, sugarcane was grown on about 5.31 million hectares, slightly down from 5.34 million hectares the previous year. Uttar Pradesh, the largest sugar-producing state in India, has seen a drop in sugarcane area from 2.88 million hectares last year to 2.79 million hectares now. Maharashtra and Karnataka, two other major producers, have increased their sugarcane area, but this has not always led to higher sugar output. For example, Karnataka’s production dropped from 5.14 million tonnes last year to 4.04 million tonnes this year, showing that more planting does not always mean more sugar.
Besides the drop in planting, other problems threaten the sugarcane crop. Heavy rains, waterlogging, and pest attacks can damage the fields. Many farmers in Uttar Pradesh still grow an older sugarcane variety, CO-0238, which is vulnerable to a disease called Red Rot that has caused serious damage in recent years.
The rainfall pattern during the monsoon season is also a concern. Although the weather department expects normal or above-normal rain from June to September, uneven rainfall distribution last year lowered yields. If this uneven rainfall continues, it could harm the sugarcane crop again in 2025-26.
Despite these challenges, some experts like the USDA predict a rise in sugar production next year based on good weather and more planted area. However, the Indian sugar industry is more cautious, expecting production to be lower than last year.
Overall, the combination of a slight decrease in planting, diseases, pests, and uncertain rainfall means that India’s sugar production for 2025-26 is uncertain and may decline compared to previous years.
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