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RBI Lowers Growth Forecast to 6.5% Amid Tariff Tensions

RBI Lowers Growth Forecast to 6.5% Amid Tariff Tensions

During the policy announcement on Wednesday, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasized that India’s real GDP is revised downward to increase at 6.5 percent in the current fiscal year 2025–2026 from an earlier expectation of 6.7%. The Governor emphasized that the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) issued data showing a robust 9.2 percent increase in the prior fiscal year, 2024–2025, which precedes this growth prediction.


He stated: “As you are all aware, the real GDP is predicted to expand by 6.5% this year based on MOSPI data. This is in addition to the 9.2% growth rate that was noted in 2024–2025, the year before.

Speaking to the media, Malhotra addressed the economy and stated that the agriculture sector is expected to do well this year due to strong crop production and healthy reservoir levels. He also mentioned that manufacturing activity is also picking up speed, with business expectations remaining positive.


The services sector is continuing to show resilience, contributing steadily to economic growth. Malhotra acknowledged that growth is improving after a poor performance in the first half of the previous fiscal year, though it is still below the level the nation aspires to achieve. On the demand side, the governor stated that the optimistic outlook for agriculture is likely to support rural demand, which is still strong, and that urban consumption is gradually rising.

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Global uncertainty, however, could put pressure on merchandise exports, Malhotra said, while services exports are predicted to remain strong and sustain the momentum of overall development.

 

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