Scientists have said that the probability of a large asteroid called ‘Asteroid 2024 YR4’ hitting the Moon in 2032 has increased. Scientists had estimated that the chance of this asteroid colliding with the Moon was 3.8 percent until February 2025. However, in an analysis using the latest data received from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in May 2025, this probability has now increased to 4.3 percent.

If this asteroid, which is between 53 and 67 meters in size, hits Earth, it will be so destructive that it could wipe out an entire city. But reports say that Earth is currently safe.

Scientists Warn of Falling Debris

A study released this month by researchers at Canadian universities explains the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon and the possibility of debris moving towards Earth. The impact will create a crater about a kilometer in diameter on the moon’s surface, and millions of kilograms of debris will be thrown out of the moon’s orbit, reaching Earth in days, researchers say. If 2024 YR4 hits the moon, it will be the largest impact in about 5,000 years, and the meteor shower on Earth will be dazzling.

Many of the asteroid rocks, ranging in size from millimeters to centimeters, will burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere. So they will not pose a major threat to life on Earth. But researchers warn that some of these objects could pose a danger to satellites, spacecraft and astronauts.

The impact on the moon’s surface would be equivalent to a large nuclear explosion, said Dr. Paul Weigert of the University of Western Ontario, the lead researcher on the study, The Guardian reports. He added that a centimeter-sized rock traveling at tens of thousands of meters per second is like a bullet. The study also says that planetary defense considerations should be expanded to take into account threats in some regions of the Earth.

NASA Takes the stand

NASA and other national space agencies have long been monitoring asteroids and comets that could pose a threat to Earth. They are also working on ways to deal with a possible collision. In 2022, NASA used its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft to smash into an asteroid named Dimorphos. This successfully changed the asteroid’s orbit. The mission was a test to deal with celestial bodies that could potentially hit Earth in the future.

Meanwhile, asteroid 2024 YR4, which is currently orbiting the Sun, is too far away to be properly observed. Researchers will have to wait until 2028 to reassess its size and trajectory.

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