1. Strategic Value of Visit
While it will be a ceremonial visit, it carries serious geopolitical implications. The US will most likely use the 250th anniversary to pressure Pakistan into taking action on counterterrorism (i.e., countering anti-Indian and anti-Afghan terrorist networks planning operations on Pakistan’s territory).
2. Potential Issues for Discussion – Terrorism and Regional Stability
While in the United States Munir will likely have meetings with US officials discussing:
Pakistan’s involvement in counterterrorism in South Asia
The issues posed by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) at play in Afghanistan. Different concerns raised with respect to India-Pakistan relations in light of recent incidents involving cross-border operations.
3. US-Pakistan & China Relationships
The United States has raised concerns about the strengthening economic and militarized relationships between Pakistan and China and the Chinese economic influence in Pakistan and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as well as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In this regard Washington may be trying to recalibrate its strategic position towards Pakistan through this trip.
4. Economic & Defense Context
Pakistan’s defense budget was upped by 20% reflecting increased security concerns and in contrast, the IMF just delivered more than $1 billion ($1.023 billion) to Pakistan indicating economically that Pakistan is in a crunch and is in a position to diplomatically negotiate around its loans and conditions.
5. Domestic Political Repercussions & Strategic Implications
Munir’s trip generated a political reaction back in Pakistan where the opposition has challenged the manner in which Munir met with US official and the trip is likely to generate even more political noise. The visit could also have implications on future US-Pakistan military cooperation and the long-term security dynamics of the region.
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