Kerala Bypoll Results: The Congress reclaimed the Nilambur assembly seat from the LDF in today’s fiercely contested by-election in Kerala. Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukath defeated his nearest rival, CPI(M)’s M Swaraj, by a margin of nearly 10,000 votes.

The by-election took place after P.V. Anvar, a two-term Independent MLA backed by the CPI(M), resigned and contested as an Independent. Voters turned out in large numbers, with 75.87% casting their ballots in the constituency, which falls under the Wayanad Lok Sabha segment, currently represented by Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi. Aryadan Shoukath is the son of Aryadan Muhammad, who represented Nilambur from 1987 to 2016.

What does Congress stand to gain from the victory?

The Congress had viewed the by-election as a mandate to overthrow Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s nine-year rule. In previous by-elections, Congress was only able to keep its current seats; this is the first by-election since 2021 in which Congress has successfully reclaimed a seat from the LDF. With the win, the party would feel more confident going into the local body elections later this year and the assembly elections in April or May of the next year. The Congress had to battle Anvar in addition to its closest opponent, the CPI(M), to win.

The decision will strengthen opposition leader V D Satheesan’s influence within the Congress, where he oversaw the campaign apparatus. For the new state leadership led by Sunny Joseph, president of the KPCC, who took K Sudhakaran’s seat last month, the victory is also a comfort. A loss would have undermined Satheesan’s dominance in the UDF and the Congress, as he had resisted Anvar’s request to be permitted to partner with the UDF in Nilambur.

Setback for CPI(M), Vijayan:
Shortly after the Vijayan government completed nine years in power, the party’s candidate was defeated. The CPI(M) has already launched a campaign for a third consecutive term when the state votes next year, claiming that the LDF government is not facing any anti-incumbency challenges.

In contrast to its previous practice of supporting Independents, CPI(M) had put up its candidate in Nilambur. However, by appointing the youthful leader, the party was unable to counteract anti-incumbency sentiment. However, the outcome from Nilambur’s hinterland cannot be interpreted as a sign of what will happen in the upcoming assembly elections.

Anvar’s Influence in Nilambur:
Anvar has shown his power in Nilambur, the constituency he has represented since 2016 as an Independent supported by the CPI(M), by garnering about 19,000 votes. He divided the anti-LDF votes, which would have otherwise gone to the Congress kitty, in a sense. Anvar has stated that he is running for office in an attempt to overthrow “Pinarayism” (a way of doing things). The Congress’s stance, which has so far closed the door on Anvar’s desire to join the UDF, will determine his future as the TMC’s state coordinator. Before making a judgment, the Congress will consider the fact that Anvar does not influence outside of Nilambur. Furthermore, even though Anvar presented a struggle, the Congress prevailed by a significant margin.

BJP’s Indifferent Stance:
Mohan George, the BJP candidate, came in fourth place, behind Anvar, the Congress, and the CPI(M). With assembly elections less than a year away, the BJP, led by its new state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar, was hesitant to run in the by-election, arguing that it would not alter state politics.

The party selected a local Christian leader from the Kerala Congress, a regional Christian party, in the constituency where, according to the 2011 census, 45% of the voters are Hindu. A bit less than 8% of the voters in the seat were Christians.

Share

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
•